Outlook on Emerging Markets: October 2023
Lazard's Outlook series provides a forward-looking view, over the short, medium, and/or long term, of asset classes, sectors, regions, or countries from the view of Lazard Asset Management. In this edition, LAM portfolio managers share their outlook for Emerging Markets in Q4 2023.
- Emerging markets equities finished the third quarter down 2.9%, bringing this year’s return to near 1.8%. The asset class has stumbled, in large part due to China’s performance, which was down nearly a quarter from its January highs, and weaker earnings growth overall.
- We believe emerging markets equities are in line to benefit from improving economic growth more than developed markets are, driven primarily by emerging Asia and information technology companies.
- Strong economic indicators, particularly in the United States, sparked concerns that interest rates would remain higher for longer, contributing to a surge in US Treasury yields—and a shock to emerging markets debt.
- We believe investment grade corporate and sovereign yields offer attractive opportunities where credit risk is limited and thus insulated from spread widening and high US Treasury yields allow investors to harvest near-record levels of carry.
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